The IMK (Institute for Macroeconomics and Economic Research) Economic Indicator developed by Prof. Dr. Christian Proa?o together with the Hans B?ckler Foundation identifies the probabilities of an emerging recession within the current or the following two months, respectively its continuation. In this context recession denotes a significant decline in industrial production. The spectrum of possible recessions here ranges from a sharp drop in production of at least 1 % over a period of five months up to a significantly weaker decline of 0,5 % which has to last over 10 months.