Rafael Kothe

// DISSERTATION PROJECT
 

The Role of Bounded Rationality, Heterogeneity, and Network Effects in Shaping Inflation Expectations and Market Sentiments

This dissertation investigates the interaction between social network structures and the formation of macroeconomic expectations. It is well-established that social networks influence information diffusion and economic narratives, potentially impacting individual behaviour and economic outcomes. However, the role of social networks in shaping macroeconomic expectations remains an underexplored area in the existing literature.

The current findings suggest that agent behaviour within a network plays a crucial role in shaping expectations, and that strategic interventions targeting specific network positions can potentially promote market stability. Targeting central agents within a network (those with high influence) could lead to a herding effect, where individuals converge towards similar expectations. This convergence could be observed in areas like inflation forecasts, potentially influencing overall market sentiment. Interestingly, the herding effect appears to hold true even for agents with subordinate centrality rankings. In these cases, a decrease in market sentiment variability and inflation rate volatility is observed, suggesting a path towards greater market stability. However, it is important to acknowledge that the effect may not necessarily be advantageous.

These findings have potential implications for how central banks manage monetary policy. If individuals are more susceptible to the opinions of others within the network, the central bank's ability to communicate its inflation narrative could be affected. Social media discussions and anxieties about inflation might overshadow the central bank's message, potentially hindering effective monetary policy implementation.

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// ACADEMIC BACKGROUND 
 

2017 – 2020
Master of Science in European Economic Studies, University of Bamberg

2013 – 2017
Bachelor of Science in Business Education, Goethe University Frankfurt

Awards / Academic Achievements and Scholarships
Full PhD Scholarship, Hans B?ckler Foundation

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// CONFERENCES AND WORKSHOPS
 

• Barcelona School of Economics Summer Forum. Presentation: "Connecting the Dots: How Social Networks Shape Macroeconomic Expectations" by R. Kothe. Barcelona, Spain. Summer 2023.
• 26th Annual Workshop on Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents. Presentation: "Connecting the Dots: How Social Networks Shape Macroeconomic Expectations" by R. Kothe. Koper, Slovenia. Summer 2023.
• 29th International Conference Computing in Economics and Finance. Presentation: "Connecting the Dots: How Social Networks Shape Macroeconomic Expectations" by R. Kothe. Nice, France. Summer 2023.
• Forum for Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policy. Presentation: "Connecting the Dots: How Social Networks Shape Macroeconomic Expectations" by R. Kothe. Berlin, Germany. Fall 2023.
• Forum for Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policy. Presentation: "Towards Network-Based Expectation Formation" by R. Kothe. Berlin, Germany. Fall 2022.
• Meeting of the German Network for New Economic Dynamics. Presentation: "Towards Network-Based Expectation Formation" by R. Kothe. Gie?en, Germany. Fall 2022.

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// EXPERIENCE
 

Work experience / Professional Experience

• Research Associate and Teaching Assistant at University of Bamberg: Professorship for Economics, especially Macroeconomics and International Finance

Internships

• Intern at Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Eschborn: DeveloPPP program focused on development partnerships in Latin America and the Caribbean
• Intern at KfW Development Bank, Frankfurt am Main: Financial systems development focused on sustainable agriculture and climate resilience in Sub Saharan Africa

Teaching Experience

• Summer 2024 Advanced Macroeconomics, Tutorial, M.Sc. Bamberg
• Winter 2023 Computational Methods for Economic Research, Tutorial & Lecture, M.Sc. Bamberg
• Summer 2023 Monetary Policy in the Euro Area, Tutorial, B.Sc. Bamberg
• Summer 2023 Introduction to Python Programming for Social Sciences, Seminar & Lecture, B.Sc. Bamberg
• Summer 2022 Introduction to Python Programming for Social Sciences, Tutorial, B.Sc. Bamberg